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Field notes from the operator’s side of the table.

Essays, methodology notes, and the occasional teardown. No SEO bait.

MethodologyCase Study

Methodology

The bet you're placing when you launch on gut

Eighty percent of new CPG products fail within twelve months. The shape of the bet is more interesting than the headline.

2026-06-01

Methodology

Why our Opportunity Score is auditable, and why that matters

A score that two analysts cannot reproduce is a score that loses the room. Determinism is the whole product.

2026-05-15

Case Study

Six months early on functional creamer

The signal was visible in recipe sites and TikTok save velocity. SPINS data did not catch up for another six months.

2026-04-22

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