The bet you're placing when you launch on gut

Eighty percent of new CPG products fail within twelve months. Anyone in the category has heard the number a hundred times. The shape of the bet, though, is more interesting than the headline.

What you actually pay when a launch fails is not just the slotting fee and the dead inventory. It is the formulation rounds, the panel work, the trade story your sales team rehearsed for nothing, and the slow attrition of an innovation org that no longer believes the model works.

NURiQ exists because the inputs that decide the bet are mostly visible, and mostly ignored.